Best Win So Far

I didn't write yesterday, but my predictions were wrong. I did realize though that no one seems to be sweating the news as much anymore. Monday and Tuesday have been a testament of this. So, while the math I performed didn't actually pull through, it did teach me that maybe ignoring the noise is the best thing. In addition to this, I came across this yesterday "Once you leave behind the notion the market needs to make sense you can make money".

Initially, I felt discouraged yesterday seeing that what I thought would happen didn't happen. Then I had to accept that I need to stop trying to make sense of it and just go with the trends and the waves. In a way, I feel like I have been trying to do that by looking at where the money's shifting, and while that has paid off, the prediction is not guaranteed.

Let's fast forward to today. I've been monitoring Amazon since Friday and today I checked the calls for a month out, the higher the price target, the higher the premium per call. I thought that was a bit backwards, why are people selling it for so much? I honestly couldn't wrap my head around a premium of $56+ per contract for a $260 target in a month. I checked the price for a $250 price target expiring on April 20, the premium was around $2.85 and the price of Amazon was at $247. I jumped in and secured a premium of $3.05 per contract.

I 100% wasn't expecting to hold this contract for more than 2 days, in the moment it felt like the wave was getting bigger and I had to either watch it get bigger or ride it. I also exited the contract 2 hours later with a 40% realized gain and sold my contracts for $4.25

This is the first time I have an immediate ROI, it almost felt like day trading, except I wasn't staring at the chart every minute for 2 hours. However, it made me accept that I need to lose the notion that it has to make sense. It was a good day, this is probably the best I have ever felt in my journey so far after feeling low yesterday about it. So, I want to replicate this method again and I want to give it a shot.

Let's look at today's performance and try to see where we can see the market surf tomorrow.

In the above we can see that NDX has been outperforming the rest of the indexes, though they have all relatively performed exceptionally over the last 5 days. At the same time, we can see that Discretionary (XLY), Technology (XLK), and communications (XLC) were the leaders today. I'm thinking one of these three will is hiding a good wave.

My prospects for tomorrow are:

AAPL

In the below, we see that there are higher highs observed today, while also having a healthy RSI. Now, I want to acknowledge that AAPL's RSI fluctuates, at the 50 mark can go either way (up or down).

To account for this prospect, I'm looking at the trading volume over the last three days for AAPL, and we can see it's been slowly increasing over the past three days

The next prospect is TSLA from XLY. In the below we see that there have been higher highs over the last 3 days. While the RSI is close to overbought position, it does seem like there might be some hype tomorrow.

I'm considering the two mentioned stocks for tomorrow. As I mentioned, today taught me to ignore the noise and to ride the trends as they come. I will not enter any contracts in the first 30 mins, and depending on what I'm seeing, I will decide if one of the two mentioned prospects is a good entry.

Today was by far my favorite day of this journey. I stopped making sense of it, and yes, I do admit that I jumped in abruptly, but the market just didn't stop pumping. Today was the fastest I've ever gained profit, and I want to build consistency since I've somewhat controlled my emotions. I've realized this is a bit of a new method, but not entirely, I'm adding different pieces from others, I am simply trying to learn how to catch a good wave and ride it smoothly and getting off of it smoothly.

I am excited for tomorrow, and as always, I'll respect my 25% loss rule.