Current Contract Prospects

I'll get to the current contract, but I will say that I am writing two blogs today as I didn't write one yesterday.

Today is February 11, 2026.

Current Contract

• $XLE $55 expiring on 3/6
• Bought on 2/5 at ~$52 and the contract was $0.67
• Strike price is $55 with a break-even of $55.67

As of today, $XLE reached my strike price, so I've already started being in the money though I haven't hit my break-even. It's been 5 days, and the price has gone up by $3 and my contract is now going for $1.40, so I have doubled my initial investment.

There are different reasons why $XLE is moving this way, there was definitely a spike in trading volume today with ~53M, which was highly controlled by the buyers with an estimated 70% of buyers. There is a lot of momentum so let's take a look at today's chart:

In the above, we can see that the RSI reached the 70 mark as it hit the 52 weeks high of $55.11. There may be a small recalibration tomorrow, but I don't expect it to be too drastic, I think the high trading value also tells me that there is so much conviction of where $XLE is headed, and even if that's not the case, $XLE is a safe place to grow in this moment. Given that I have hit the strike price, I am not paying significant amounts of money to my frenemy theta.

Thoughts and prospects:

I definitely believe that the price for $XLE will continue to grow. So, while my break-even price is $55.67, I still have 23 days with this contract including the weekends. So, theta hasn't started eating my money up aggressively and it won't (not much that is) as long as I stay in the price strike up until February 25. Depending on the daily monitoring, I will make decisions, if I see there is a great opportunity for ROI, then I will keep it and aim for both $56 and $58 as the latter doesn't sound unrealistic.