Don't Force It

So I tried to force a trade today, kind of.

Yesterday I saw that XLC was 90% sellers and 1% buyers with low volume, which prompted me to look at this sector closer as I expected the similar behavior I saw in XLU the previous day. I then considered $INTC from XLC as an option today, which initially panned out to be good right at the opening, but my entry wasn't as the resistance pushed it down. Let's take a look.

In the above, we can see that INTC did in fact close higher than the previous day, we saw the price jump overnight and therefore a $118 opening price. However, INTC couldn't hold it and was met with resistance. Was it the right call? hmm at the macro level with XLC probably not. INTC in itself? probably yes, but I could've waited to see if the resistance of $112 would break before entering.

It's almost midnight, so this post will go out after 12AM. I have been on twitter seeing that the market is dumping overnight and tracked some stocks, so tomorrow sounds like a bloodbath, but I'm wondering how my angle will play out with it. We know that utilities is a shelter, but let's study and see what we find.

From the above, we know that XLC did not perform as expected, and it is evident, it was the lowest in the rank today. Yesterday we saw that XLU was exactly how it is now a 20M sellers vs 0.91M buyers with a negative return. Given the news overnight, we can probably see the money go into hiding tomorrow, but after today's experience, I have to be careful. Let's look at XLU prospects first.

Again, I will tread carefully tomorrow, but Southern (SO) is a great candidate so far. Looking at the last 5 day's analysis, we see the below:

If we look at what happened on Jun 1, the sellers volume was 99% vs 1% buyers. We then saw that price change on June 2. Today, June 3 we see the same thing taking place with a high seller volume, meanwhile, the price remained flat. In addition to this, in the below chart I've added the 200MA-20MA

Although the price has fallen under the 20 and 200MA, we see that the overnight has already taken over and is inching closer to the 200MA. Given the analysis, we can hypothesize that SO is bound to break 200 day high tomorrow as money seeks shelter in the morning. This is the only position I'll consider from XLU tomorrow.

I'll also consider XLF, the reason being that I'm seeing the first pattern I observed when introducing the enhancements. The trading volume is 50/50 between sellers and buyers, but the return remained negative, which means that it can flip tomorrow. From here, I am considering BRK-B as it is already in a 3 day uptrend and has closed above the 200MA.

At the same time, the volume today was low, but it was a 50/50 split between the sellers and buyers.

Lastly, I'll consider Mastercard as well. From the below analysis we see that buyers stepped in yesterday, but the price continued to decline, which may mean a reversal is coming. However, this is the one I will be the most careful with as I know that there may be influx of buyers within the first 30 mins seeking shelter from the entire market bleed out taking place right now.

In conclusion, I'll be considering MA,BRK-B, and SO for tomorrow's contract. However, I will be monitoring each one of them and understand if there is a resistance established for each one of them.

Let's see what happens tomorrow!