Fake-Out Pump & Possible Put

I exited my contract today and took some profit, I knew it wasn't going to be a sustainable run.

Let's take a quick look at Citigroup's performance today.

In the above, we see that Citigroup reached a $116.79 high during opening minutes, this put me at a ~63.51% gain, but I held on to it, and while I set a trailing stop loss of $4.80, it dropped way too fast between 10:10-10:40 to $114.16 and it completely bypassed my stop loss. At this time I was leading a work call and didn't catch this. However, when it slightly recovered, I exited at $4.78 but my order filled at $4.65. So I'm not upset, a win is a win. I didn't lose my initial investment here and made ~25% in profit.

To be fair, I knew I was going to sell today either way ahead of Trump's address to the Nation. The sudden pump didn't feel sustainable at all. So last week I learned about indexes and how any financial stocks and industrials are to be compared to DJI. Let's look at today's performance against DJI:

In the above, the yellow line represents DJI, there was a +0.48% performance from it. However, C had a 1.73% gain today, so it is safe to say that it was a top performer across the financial index.

I considered buying a put today after I exited my call contract, the reason being that as I mentioned, I knew it was a fake-out. Given that I've never entered a put contract, I am mentally prepared to lose money on my first put, I'm not saying that it will be the case, but I am prepared for the worst as it will be something new for me. But, I didn't open a contract, I really wanted to wait for Trump's address to the Nation.

I watched the whole speech, and for at least 2-3 weeks, the oil prices will remain high, the financials may do just okay but it probably will be a shaky first week and a half of April with PCE and CPI reports are coming out April 9-10. Overall, post the speech, I monitored SPY, DIA, and C after the speech and the three began falling as expected, which made me regret not opening a put contract, tomorrow it might skyrocket to $3.80-$4.00 from current $2.55.

See below three quick charts for DIA, SPY, C post speech:

DIA

SPY

Citigroup

Overall, Citigroup isn't doing terrible in comparison to SPY and DIA (DJI), which is a very strong signal. However, it may mean that the drop might either not be too drastic or it may be slow to drop to $108

I do believe that the morning will be a frenzy of sellers and puts. So the price may drop significantly until it stabilizes. Given that we have two reports back to back next week, some traders may choose to short Citigroup until then. I'll monitor it tomorrow in the first hour and track the ratio between puts/calls alongside tracking VIX.

Yesterday and today have been probably the best days for me in this journey. Today I officially enter Q2 of doing this and the ROI in knowledge is at a maximum, but as I always, this is a continuous learning journey if I want to be one of the best and most profitable. The future looks bright and exciting, and I can't wait for what's to come, but in the meantime, let's see what tomorrow has in store.