2 min read

High Stakes Citigroup & Morgan Stanley

I said today I'd plan a game plan for this week to monitor the entrance, the problem is, I feel behind on the entrance. Allow me to explain:

The two main holdings I'm most focused on are Citigroup ($C) & Morgan Stanley ($MS). I've looked at their chart, their performance on Friday and have studied their current RSI and 20-200MA. They're up for a breakthrough, I believe. Most importantly, I believe the big players know this or have known this.

We're all clear on the ex-dividend dates, they're not happening until ~April 30 for $MS and early may for $C. Nobody's rushing to buy in to collect their dividend check, but they may be rushing to buy at a sale.

So what am I talking about?

$MS closed at $161.47 on Friday, above the 20-MA and only short $4.78 from the 200-MA breakthrough. After last week, we know the financial sector is one of the leaders post PPI report and oil rising prices. Two contracts considered for April 24:

  • $175 currently at $3.20 – this one makes me feel like I'm late and trying to secure the last minute ticket to the ride.
  • $180 currently at $2.40 – Sure, cheaper, but somehow feels like settling and too high of a stake. Not that it's not attainable, just not within the time range I'm aiming for – 5 to 10 days max.

Let's look at Citigroup now

$C closed at $109.52 on Friday, above the 20-MA, and touching the 200-MA by only being short $1.68. A very tight squeeze for $C. Two contracts considers for April 24:

  • $116 currently at $3.25 – also feels like a last minute ticket before departure. It somehow even feels too cheap, not the contract but the price of $MS at this point.
  • $120 currently at $2.03 – The price of $MS feels undervalued yes, so perhaps this is cheap, but an $11 change sounds risky and brisk. Now, it's happened yes, but it also means that if I choose this, I have to get out right away. We have seen this back on March 9 - March 10.

Overall these two holdings feel like very high stakes, possible yes, but it does make me feel like I have to be quick in the entry and the exit for both. I'm not sure if it is the volatility that makes me feel that way, or whether I'm learning to develop a gut feeling. I won't know until whatever happens this week. For all I know I could be wrong, but it does feel like I can't second guess too much on these two.

These are high stakes, and it's maybe my shift in the strategy and knowing how the market has been moving lately what with political issues, inflation and everything really. I certainly don't want to rush an entry here, that would be stupid, but there isn't much time to sit on my hands it feels like. Rule is still not trading the first 30-60 minutes, I must respect that. If I catch a sale, I'm taking it.

I'm both excited and nervous for tomorrow, nervous because I want a sale and excited because I have a good feeling. If I'm wrong, we re-assess, but for now, I wanna trust my gut. I also feel like I'm working for a big investing company and the big investing company is me. Let's see what tomorrow shows us and whether or not I jump in the water