SRE - Aggressive Run Day 1

Don't like the title of this post too much, but I'll keep it.

Yesterday I mentioned the previous week and this week starting today. In short, I mentioned that I expected Today and Tomorrow (3/17) to be limitless days for SRE. The reason being that PPI is going to be reported on 3/18 at 8:30 AM and the ex dividend date is on 3/19. What does it all mean?

Last month it was reported that PPI rose by 0.5% in January this created a drop in the stock market. In the month of February, this could've continued to rise as the US attacked Iran in February, from then on, we have seen a constant rise in crude oil. Either way, let's look at today's performance quickly

In the above we can see three things happening when we look at the last 14 days:

1. SRE opened and closed above the resistance, turning $95.18 into the new support
2. RSI is at the 64 mark, very close to 70, but there is room for one last push before it stabilizes again
3. In the last 14 days, SRE has outperformed its entire sector

Tomorrow is a big day, the whole day I've been thinking about what my move is tomorrow. Today my contract went up to $3.50 at some point from the original $2.33 giving me a $1.17 profit, I haven't reached the break-even yet. However, the profit is not bad, it's like a slow gain but secure for sure. Why tomorrow matters to me?

There may be some sellers tomorrow ahead of the PPI, depending on what the general sentiment is. If the majority is expecting the PPI to continue to rise from the previous month, then we may experience a drop in most sectors, but specifically utilities. The opposite can happen, if the PPI is expected to be lower than the previous month, then it can push SRE to $98 before its ex-dividend day on 3/19. While I knew I'd want to exit before the ex-dividend date, the PPI is what's clouding me a little bit.

I expected a run today and tomorrow, we saw a little bit of that when SRE crossed $96.40 as the high today. Tomorrow we can expect an even higher run ahead of PPI. At this moment in time, I'm not sure what the decision will be, but if my speculations are right, and we see a high of $97.20 or even $97, I might consider getting out for two reasons:

1. Ex dividend will immediately drop the price by -0.66. While this is not a huge amount to high volatile stocks, SRE is a mid level volatile, not too crazy but not too slow. Can SRE recover? sure, it can, it might. However, those are $0.66 extra that we don't have to lose.
2. I think that I've hit the "should I stay or should I go?" which causes uncertainty for me. When I first felt secured on this trade, even now, going into tomorrow I feel great about it as I expect SRE to show out. Considering staying or getting out for PPI day makes it feel like a gamble. Now of course, PPI can possibly show it cooled down, and then I'll probably have FOMO. Though taking guaranteed profit also gives me peace of mind at the same time as "I could have more".

I'm having a hard time deciding because of the recent buy from the internal directors/investors. While it is my understanding that they cannot make decisions based on insider's information, it does tell me that they have so much conviction and took on a sale price to buy. As I mentioned in one of the previous posts as well, UBS has targeted SRE for $100

Tomorrow will be an interesting day, I definitely am excited for what SRE will do. I can look at different speculations for PPI tomorrow, but until I see how tomorrow looks, I can't make a concrete decision.