Tomorrow's Anticipation
I personally think the market will bleed out tomorrow. I will be surprised if it doesn't, thew news this weekend regarding the conflict with Iran hasn't been the greatest. Though we need to keep in mind that Trump extended the attacks until Tuesday by 8 pm if Iran doesn't open the strait.
Now, personally this sounds like an internal play. Some people may try to squeeze it on Monday and short the stocks. Who knows? I won't trade the first hour, I will monitor the spread between DJI and Citigroup.
| Date | C Return | DJI Return | Spread | Spread_MA | VIX | RS Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 1.94% | 1.38% | 0.55% | nan% | 26.15 | 0.00242 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1.88% | -0.18% | 2.06% | nan% | 26.95 | 0.00247 |
| 2026-03-25 | 0.65% | 0.66% | -0.01% | 0.87% | 25.33 | 0.00247 |
| 2026-03-26 | -1.81% | -1.01% | -0.80% | 0.42% | 27.44 | 0.00245 |
| 2026-03-27 | -4.47% | -1.73% | -2.75% | -1.19% | 31.05 | 0.00238 |
| 2026-03-30 | -0.10% | 0.11% | -0.21% | -1.25% | 30.61 | 0.00237 |
| 2026-03-31 | 5.72% | 2.49% | 3.24% | 0.09% | 25.25 | 0.00245 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1.67% | 0.48% | 1.18% | 1.40% | 24.54 | 0.00248 |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.04% | -0.13% | 0.09% | 1.50% | 23.87 | 0.00248 |
In the above table, I've compiled the last 9 days closing prices for Citigroup and DJI. I've calculated the spread and the MA_Spread.
Here's what we are seeing, on April 2nd, we can see the drop in the spread that started on March 31, but 3 day Spread_MA remained high. I will run this same comparison tomorrow morning while the market is open and try to determine what the sentiment is and where Citigroup may be headed. Typically, if the spread goes down, it is a good indicator for the price of an asset to be dropping. The daily data has already turned bearish, but the 3-day average is still reflecting last week's 'Fake Out' pump. I'm waiting for the MA to roll over to confirm the new downward trend. In addition, I see that the VIX dropped by 1 point, giving breathing room to the entire market.
If the market is full on bleeding tomorrow during the day, we can expect another short squeeze ahead of Tuesday, though it isn't guaranteed. Lastly, there are two big reports coming this week on inflation prices and spending. Inflation may help Citigroup, but I'm starting to believe that everyone else is too focused on the news than the reports.
The market has been closed for three full days, tomorrow can go either way, but again, I'll be surprised if it's not bleeding or if a short squeezed isn't witnessed. Let's see what tomorrow has in store for us.
Member discussion