$XLE and tomorrow

My predictions from yesterday's post were spot on. I'm both pumped and also trying to remain calm about it. It makes me feel like I've found an edge, but I can't celebrate yet until I take profit.

First, this is the second time I considering taking half of profit and then still seeing the trade through with half. I didn't do it, so this is something I need to start being more mindful of and taming. I think I'm seeing it as "okay but I can get more" and that starts to feel like gambling after hours when I process the day's performance.

Today I learned about PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) - It is being reported tomorrow and while I haven't entirely understood it, here's what I've gotten: It is being reported at 8:30 am on February 20, 2026. If it is less than 0.2% then it means PCE has cooled and it can push XLE higher. If PCE is Neutral or HOT it can be 0.3% or >0.4% - this could potentially lower the price of XLE. I will do a deep dive on CPE tomorrow to understand how it impacts my trade choices moving forward.

Statistically speaking, if I were to look at charting alone, then I could say that XLE will remain steady and might even continue to climb up. I say this because we saw that slight retreat for RSI and it drew back to high 50s, which indicates breathing room for another run. In addition, we see the lows getting higher from February 17 - February 19, see chart below:

Now, based on that analysis it would make sense to predict the climb up. However, we did see a spike of buyers and sellers at the last minutes. Buyers driving ~140k in volume and sellers ~178k . Perhaps some people wanted to take profits ahead of the PC E announcement, and that's fair.

Analyzing the performance and RSI plus the trend over the last 3 days, I can say that I expect steadiness and reaching $56 tomorrow. Though I don't know anything about PCE right now, and want to dedicate tomorrow for it for the most part. I don't know what to expect based on PCE, but I'm ready to see it through.

If the price drops in the before market hours, then I might exit half of my contract. This move will allow me to not lose too much capital and recover some, given that theta is starting to increase one dollar per day it seems. If the opposite happens, I think I will still take half of it only because I already had this feeling twice and I've ignored it.

Overall thoughts

I feel good about this trade, I've said this over and over, but it's felt like an informed trade. I've seen what worked in the past work this time, and choosing an ETF was smart I believe due to it not being too aggressive in volatility; it allowed me to have more breathing room. I also feel good about it because I'm learning about finance as I go. Excited to see what PCE does tomorrow before I even know what that is fully.