$XLE Recovery

It’s February 18, and the market definitely gave me a break today.

Yesterday I was ready to walk out the contract if the price for $XLE stayed flat today and tomorrow. Luckily for me, it bounced back — yesterday the lowest price observed was $53.19 and today, the close was $54.78, this is a $1.59 difference. As a reminder, my contract price per contract was $0.67 for $55 expiring on March 6; tonight the price for the same contract is $1.35 that is doubled the original. I expect tomorrow morning to go up in the morning for the first 30 mins, since there may be a pretty good share of FOMO investors.

Daily Performance Table (Feb 18, 2026)

Asset Name	Feb 17 Close	Feb 18 Close	% Change (Today)
XLE (Energy ETF)	$53.75	$54.78	+1.92%
XOM (ExxonMobil)	$146.19	$150.64	+3.04%
CVX (Chevron)	$180.55	$183.87	+1.84%
COP (ConocoPhillips)	$108.78	$110.52	+1.60%

In the above we can see the big three having a Green Day. This contributed to the XLE recovery. Although I didn’t follow the price of the big three individually throughout the day, I assumed they were having a good run based on the XLE jump.

The RSI is hanging at a good spot ~67, which will potentially reach 70 by tomorrow when the overnight buyers settle. Then we may see a slight retreat, but overall I expect a stable day in the $55.

I feel optimistic about this, I think part of it is having that mental foot ready to step on the brake if the price reached $53, gave me more leverage to make a smarter decision. At the same time, I see my theta increasing now, it’s reached 0.0403, which has gone up from yesterday, so I gotta watch out for that tomorrow and Friday. Part of me feels like I’m culminating this trade, because I have a positive outlook about it in the next few days. The $58 moonshot feels attainable, but also is something that I’ll decide depending on the trend, as long as it doesn’t feel like a gamble.