Sea Switch

I've taken a break for my own mental health and hoping it helps me bounce back. In the process of re-designing my automated model, I feel as if it stunted my own pattern recognition. I had bad calls more than anything really, and it pushed my confidence to the lowest pits of hell.

I've reverted the changes to my model and going back to what worked. I'm not sure that automating the sectors will work, I'm hoping it does. I want this to speak for myself when interviewing for more quant/finance jobs. However, I have to erase what hasn't worked and go back to the drawing board. I didn't trade last week as a result of all this, it didn't make sense. So, enough wallowing and let's take a look at what the tape showed on Friday at the end of the day.

From the above, Monday is looking to be interesting. If I go with the tape alone, I can see that XLE and XLU will lead tomorrow. The selling volume was greater than that of the buyers, but the sectors still ended up positive, besides, the overall volume was heavy.

This doesn't mean that there won't be other sectors outpacing SPY tomorrow, if I were to consider any others, I'd say XLY and XLV have a good chance as there is almost a 1:1 ratio in volume between the buyers and the sellers. Interestingly enough, the two models I had in place have called out XLE and XLU as it is very obvious this time around. As I reserve my personal feelings on trading XLE, I will opt for XLU, but ultimately, XLU is the safe haven of investors when everything goes wrong.

I don't feel confident on any of the calls for XLU or XLE, or any of the stocks for that matter. It's a little hard to read when using the 5 day volume decomposition for the ones I've looked at. I will revert to SPY for tomorrow and have a 0DTE call for $747

I'm not sure if it's the lack of focus I've had with this, or if the market has been a bit all over the place the last few days, which may also be contributing to the fluctuation on my method. I think, I've messed up when I should've preserved cash, but for tomorrow I will go with SPY, it's the only thing I feel confident on. I'll be switching the sea in which I surf the waves tomorrow, not single waves but rather a huge ocean.

Of course, if the SPY does not convince me tomorrow, then I'll stay clear and simply observe the market. Let's see what Monday says