Measure Twice, Cut Once.

I've been thinking about the title I've chosen for tonight's post the whole night. It's easy to overthink about whether trading is for me or not, especially when you find a good edge, and it works, then you run it back, and it doesn't; when you lose yesterday's gains the next day.

Today was a bit of it not working and spiriling a bit, I'm wondering if I'm picking the wrong asset. At the moment I've been choosing the ones that hold the most value in the sectors I choose on a given day. Perhaps, that's the issue. Maybe I'm overshooting at times.

Yesterday I predicted that XLV, XLU, and XLP would have positive day. I also selected XLV as my sector of focus today – XLV led the sectors by ending as the top performer today. From XLV, I selected JNJ as my asset, so let's take a look:

Evidently, there was a jump from yesterday to today. However, the stock plateaued after reaching $269. As I write this and complete my analysis for wrap up, I may start realizing that the RSI plays a huge part in the performance of my assets. If I look at yesterday, the RSI was relative high as it nearly reached 70 and while everything pointed to an increase in price, I failed to consider RSI. Now, of course an asset can remain in an overbought position for a long time, but there has to be some recalibration still taking place.

Yesterday, when trading TSLA, the difference was that TSLA had been in an oversold position for a while, giving investors a huge opportunity to drive the stock up.

While it definitely feels discouraging at times, I am stubborn and I don't give up. So, I'll keep RSI in mind for my next approach as I will be measuring twice. With that said, let's look at what sectors we can expect to thrive tomorrow:

• XLF – high trading volume, 95% controlled by sellers, price has remained negative. Reversal takes place.
• XLY – low volume overpowered by sellers
• XLC – low volume overpowered by sellers
• XLI – almost even distribution with good trading volume

From the above, I will choose XLI.

Above I have a chart for GE – This is the best prospect I can find for tomorrow's set up. Low RSI, we see the wedge breakout ready to take place.

I'll be more cautious tomorrow in my entry and see. I don't want to overshoot, but I will wait my 20-30 mins before opening a contract.